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'It's not important whether you are right or wrong, it more important how much you lose when you are wrong and how much money you make when you are right.': George Soros

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Don't forget to read one tip below (wish you had followed it..)

(Nasdaq had great rally from 2800 on October 12, 1999 to almost 5100 by April 2000 and then again back to 2500 level on November 29, 2000. Didn't you wish you knew this great fluctuation? Well read the following email that I sent out to my friends on October 12,1999.)

10/12/1999 2:01 PM. NASDAQ. Possibility of a sharp uptrend..

NASDAQ has another Gangotri today. Around this 2900 level, this is the third Gangotri within last one month. It confirms continued profit taking at this level and on the other hand, the market is coming back to this level again and again confirming the bulls have not given up either.

The criticality of the war is further evidenced by lack of higher volume with each attempt to take market to higher level.

What happens in such situation? If bulls win, the uptrend is irrational, unthinkable and crazy (like the one that was there in India in Harshad Mehta time). It is nothing but squeezing out the bears and that causes the prices to skyrocket (gold is a nice example to describe such situation). All great bull markets, in their last phase, usually get crazy. (See US markets in 1929 (pre-depression), early 1987, Japanese markets in late 80s when Nikkei touched 40000, Indian markets in 1992). If you agree with me so far in this email, read this very carefully: go back and see what happened in all those instances listed above. The bear markets that followed were devastating, unthinkable. So for some reasons if you are still bullish on US markets, you may have all that joy and money if the history is repeated again. But if you miss to sell everything you have at that point, you would have great memories (but little money and tons of regrets) for atleast five years.

I may often sound like a bear just because I am a strong believer in "Values" and I always attempt to figure out REWARDS Vs RISK. (I am not a bear either. I have given you guys very timely buy signals when NASDAQ has bottomed out and also in case of many stocks...) I am just extra cautious.

 

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