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Jayesh Patel

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Tips about indices Dow Jones and Nasdaq

Boom and a bursssst- a classic prediction
NASDAQ (most of my major comments on general market as published on my message board. It does show good timing!)
Dow Jones (I stopped following Dow Jones as a market index for technical analysis purposes. S&P 500 is more useful and representative of general market)


Message posted (which turned out to be correct with perfect timing after Sept 11 attacks on WTC) 11:18 am friday september 21, 2001
Some hope for reversal

I have been avoiding for quite few days to post a message on market's current downturn. I have been watching two Jayeshes with pretty conflicting opinions on the market. One emotionless ruthless Jayesh(Tech) believed that as markets had broken previous lows, they were very vulnerable for a greater fall. The other Jayesh (Investor), emotional and pretty optimistic (and not a bit realistic, like most of common investors), kept believing that the prices are already low and attractive so how further could they go down? I was neutrally watching them fight and hence avoided any comment or opinion for someone.

Today is a different day. The first Jayesh(Tech) was also feeling a kind of optimistic for three reasons:
(i) markets opened way lower today and are sustaining at higher level than today's lows/opens.
(ii) Also, NASDAQ and SP500 (also DJI to some extent) have been around a good support level.
(iii) Contrarily also, no one has courage to believe or even think that markets could go up in short run in midst of all kind of bad news and none good news on distant horizon.

This made both of the Jayeshes feel comfortable. So come out from the fear, do some bargain hunting and invest today (if you have money and also courage to invest). Just for record, NASDAQ opened below 1400 and is currently 1415 and S&P touched 950 and is currently at 960. (Jayesh (tech) is still looking for confirmation to his hypothesis. It will be proved if markets closed with positive gains today (too optimistic, right?)). Keep watching here for frequent messages on markets in next few days.

Click here for follow up message posted on next day 9:45 am monday september 24, 2001 (It is a good reading!)

Message posted (which turned out to be wrong) 5:54 pm wednesday july 11, 2001

Message posted 4:52 pm thursday april 19, 2001
A short term trading opportunity

If you were lucky to buy stocks in beginning of April when NASDAQ was hovering around 1700-1800 level making all of us feeling so miserable, I guess there is an opportunity to book some profit (I must say a hefty opportunity, JNPR from 29 to 70, PMCS, QLGC from less than 20 to more than 45, NTAP 13/14 to 24 and AVNX from 8 to 18 or so) based on the after hour markets today. Remember this is just a trading opportunity not a disinvestment or selling opprotunity. Am I clear?

I want to be as clear as I can: Please distinguish between short term trend, intermediate term trend and long-term(Major) trend.
* The intermediate uptrend (you can say monthly) which started on 5th April is still intact and would take us all to almost mid point of the losses (somewhere around NASDAQ 3500) within next 6 months.
* However the short-term (you can say weekly) down-trend may set- in from tomorrow or sometime early next week for next few days bringing in memory of those bad days back in our mind to some extend- not fully. This infact would be a great buying opportunity for intermediate term to get in for all of us and those who have missed out.
* The Major trend (you can call it quarterly-yearly) is still down which sometime next year or in 2003 should bring NASDAQ to much lower than what we had on April 4th. (It would be the third phase- surrender of the bear cycle. We just abondoned our hope around 4th April but we did not surrender, did we?) But this is not the time to be worried about bad days; just enjoy and benefit from the intermediate uptrend.

Message posted 12:17 pm thursday april 5, 2001
Reversal for good! NASDAQ going up!

On 5th April when I posted last message about trend reversal, I forgot to put NASDAQ Level on that day.

If you recall, April 4th was the day when NASDAQ touched 1620 and April 5th was the very next day when the message about reversal was posted and also when my software flashed all round strong buy and trend reversal signals. It is right so far and NASDAQ is currently at 1947 at this very moment.

The message that was posted on April 5th, 2001:

I know each rally is fooling us. Last two times, when I raised the possibility of trend-reversal signals during market-hours, somehow the markets dropped towards close in both instances and the reversal signals did not materialize. I was wrong on my optimism; I should have waited for concrete confirmation.

Anyway, today is a very similar case. Very likely that yesterday was a bottom for next 6-12 months. Index plus most stocks has either a clear gap, or even JUMP, or FullStop signal.

Again, everything would be confirmed based on closing prices.
1. They have to close today clearly above today's opening price.
2. Keep a stoploss at yesterday's low price/level - 1%.
3. Do you think today's rally is not for real and it will fade away in a day or two? If you do, good for the markets!
4. Did you buy anything today or yesterday or over last 2/3 days? If not, good! Most of us are supposed to miss the bottom.

Though sounds funny, this is how the market is.

Message posted (which turned out to be wrong) 12:23 pm friday february 9, 2001
NASDAQ 2481 right this moment

Nasdaq which started upward journey from around 2200 (a full fledged powerful gangotri on Jan 03,2001) and made a short-term top at around 2900 is currently at 2481 at this very moment. This is a very good support level for those who want to get in. My opinion is that the markets have long term trend down, Intermediate term trend up (which can take NASDAQ in the range of 3000-3600) short term down (it started at 2900 level and my opinion is that it has to end today or in a day or two.)

Important: * When your long term outlook is down, it is recommended that you book profit at every good rise (How do you quantify a rise? For me, 40-50% return on a position is great.). I have been telling everyone for last couple of months not to hang on for long. This market will test nerves of long-term investors for next few years.
* Invest only in leaders, growth companies or stocks you know inside out very well. Avoid concept plays, symphathic buys (I mean stupid buys, thinking a stock has come down form 100 to 10 so let us just buy it), friends' tips for less known stocks (especially when they have burnt themselves in that stock and they are unconsciously looking for you to be in that sinking boat with them so they don't feel alone and don't have to cry alone- atleast you would be with them. A good friendship, right?).
* Watch out from great buys especially in internet/tech sector. Figure out which companies are still doing good with 20% plus growth, have better products/services or are supposed to do well. As per my opinion, valuations are pretty attractive and down to the earth (I mean for intermediate term) and Internet is going to stay. It is not going down the drain with those thousands of internet (companies) stories.

Message posted 12:12 pm wednesday december 20, 2000
What now?

The Gateway stock created one opportunity to get in and markets rebounded from 2510 level to 3025+ since then. It proved to be only a bear market correction with NASDAQ hovering about 2360 right now.

Today most of the stocks have bear gap. This is not good. So what plan of action should be adopt now? 1. This creates a possibility of NASDAQ still going down. However the drop in NASDAQ is too steep and overdone from time perspective. So the rally would also be quick and most likely very easy to miss if we are waiting for bottom fishing. The great companies like YHOO, EBAY, MSFT, SUNW, CSCO, DELL, JDSU, AMD, NTAP are still great! The good part is that their stocks which were not that great from investing and value point of view for last few months are now great!!! From this level they can easily bring you around 50% return within a year. I guess this price level is enough for me. I still believe that new highs are very distant but a correction to 3400-3600 level is pretty possible. Nothing ventured nothing gained!! 2. I see a strong possibility of a bullish gap or a Gangotri in market some time within next 4/5 days. If the bull gap, Gangotri happens, just take it as a strong reversal. You might want to know that it would be the same pattern, but in reverse, that brought CSCO down from 70 dollars to 36 today. (Read it on my message board Date 10 AUG 2000.)

This is really a scarry ride! I have no pleasure in being right in my sell recommedations. I just regret you had belived in charts. But be positive, you have paid your price in learning markets (though the price may be hefty) and everyone has to do that! Mistakes make us better and take us further toward our journey to be perfect, provided we learn from our mistakes.

(Note: I went to India on 3rd of January 2001 and if you remember on that day Fed surprisingly cut interest rate by 50 basis point and made the NASDAQ to post maybe the biggest percentage jump ever. In line with above message, it was a perfect Gangotri which took the market to 2900s over next 2 months..)

Message posted on 5:52 pm wednesday november 29, 2000
Thanks Gateway. NASDAQ may turn up from today:

Gateway is down to less than 20$ in aftermarkets so are INTC(37 $), SUNW(75$), JDSU (54$), Yahoo (37$). Everybody is talking about a horrible day tomorrow......What do you think will happen tomorrow? This is a classic build up of negetive emotions. My trading software is also repeating targets of around 2500 level since it was around 3000. Both should be there tomorrow- panic and technical requirements. This would be an excellent bottom fishing opportunity. If you have investible funds, keeps orders for tomorrow at lower level and watch the market to modify the orders just to make sure they get filled. Remember: Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Message posted on 2:19 pm monday december 11, 2000
NASDAQ 3000plus. Did you buy stocks?

Not much before nor afterwards, I had in plain words told everyone to 'Thank Gateway' for bringing an opportunity for market trend to reverse and to do bottom fishing...Most of the stocks formed bottom on that day and many of them are since up by as much as 50-80%. Just go check and see yourself that it was a bottom day and NASDAQ touched a low of 2510 and since then is 3000 plus today. Did you buy any stocks? Pls participate on this message board or atleast say hi if you are visiting this page. (I am kind of losing interest in posting tips here if no one is ever looking at it. Thanks. )

NASDAQ: 5:17 pm tuesday july 18, 2000

As mentioned previously and I do hope you guys believed me when I said when NASDAQ was around 3200-3300 that the market has to come back to 4000-4500 level before going further down. I guess we are there. Don't buy anything new. Keep selling. Sooner or later around this level, the sell-off would start and when you realize, the NASDAQ would be around 3600 or so. Just play safe.

NASDAQ: 12:23 pm thursday august 3, 2000
NASDAQ Opened at 3580 today and going up today. NASDAQ is turning up from today. Make money upward. the immediate target is 4000 plus

NASDAQ: 1:58 pm thursday august 3, 2000
NASDAQ has perfect Gangotri. Be bullish. Today it opened a way down at 3580 or so but closed at 3755. Volume was also strong. A perfect Gangotri. (Want to know what is Gangotri? Look at my stock Lessons.) boldStop-loss 3525. Target: 4200 /bold Good luck.

NASDAQ: 10:27 am saturday november 11, 2000
Hats off to Gangotri!!! From the 3755 level on the day of this message sometime in August 2000, the NASDAQ touched 4259 on Setp 1 as per target of 4200. This was the top and since then the market is down to 3030 today. If you still don't learn Gangotri, you are missing a lot.


11:19 am thursday july 27, 2000
Dow Jones, currently at 10580, is ready for one way movement. The bias is more upward than downward. STOPLOSS for Bulls: 10350. Enjoy DOW JONES.

4:23 pm tuesday september 26, 2000
The Dow Jones gave a good uptrend of about 900 plus points from that level in a short span and touched almost 11500 plus. Wasn't it a good comment for the index which was stuck in sideways for long time? What now? Immediate: It is back to 10630 or so today. Now 10500 has to support the prices to keep every american in pink. If it closes below it, 10200 is another level which should try to stop the slide. If both levels are broken (it is very likely that they would be broken), where should DOW take you to? 9600 would be immediate target which after a temporory respite could ultimately take the dow under 9000. Medium Term: Under 9600, I would resist all temptations to BUY CHEAP and would feel comfortable only around 7500-7800 level. Any takers???


Fortelling you about boom and a bursssssssssssssssst.

10/12/1999 2:01 PM. NASDAQ. Possibility of a sharp uptrend.. NASDAQ has another Gangotri today. Around this 2900 level, this is the third Gangotri within last one month. It confirms continued profit taking at this level and on the other hand, the market is coming back to this level again and again confirming the bulls have not given up either. The criticality of the war is further evidenced by lack of higher volume with each attempt to take market to higher level.

What happens in such situation? If bulls win, the uptrend is irrational, unthinkable and crazy (like the one that was there in India in Harshad Mehta time). It is nothing but squeezing out the bears and that causes the prices to skyrocket (gold is a nice example to describe such situation). All great bull markets, in their last phase, usually get crazy. (See US markets in 1929 (pre-depression), early 1987, Japanese markets in late 80s when Nikkei touched 40000, Indian markets in 1992). If you agree with me so far in this email, read this very carefully: go back and see what happened in all those instances listed above. The bear markets that followed were devastating, unthinkable. So for some reasons if you are still bullish on US markets, you may have all that joy and money if the history is repeated again. But if you miss to sell everything you have at that point, you would have great memories (but little money and tons of regrets) for atleast five years.

I may often sound like a bear just because I am a strong believer in "Values" and I always attempt to figure out REWARDS Vs RISK. (I am not a bear either. I have given you guys very timely buy signals when NASDAQ has bottomed out and also in case of many stocks...) I am just extra cautious.

Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee for future results. I am not being paid for my comments on market or any stock. I do this more as an amature and out of my love and interest in observing market and stocks. The reader takes total responsibility for the profit or loss that arise on her trades,